Statistically Speaking

Anyone here on Mibba ever been involved in a random security check at the airport?

I get the principle behind them, I do. It's only natural that people are going to be anal about airport security, especially following September 11 and, more recently, the marathon bombing (granted, a terrorist attack carried out on land, but it's still scarred the country's psyche). It's natural to want to protect oneself from the big bad outside world— and sometimes ourselves, admittedly.

I don't like to consider myself racist -- no one likes to -- but the fact is I do take advantage of society's internalized racism and that's nearly as bad as me shouting the N-word at someone. I'll admit I hadn't been as acutely aware of my white privilege up until very recently

My best friend is Iranian. That normally shouldn't even matter, and normally it doesn't. She and her family took me on a trip across the country. (It's a normal thing; we're practically siblings anyways. However, this was the first time all of us would be flying anywhere.) To get to our destination, we had to go through three airports each way.

Guess what happened every time?

That's right. They got pulled into a random security check each time.

The first two times, I could somewhat understand. It was possible that we just happened to catch both security guards when they were supposed to do their check.

But no. Six times in a row, we were stopped. Actually, I should say six times my friend's family was stopped. The one time my bag was searched, it was as if an afterthought.

All right, time to put that AP Statistics course to work.

This is a simple binomial distribution.

Let's assume for the ease of calculations the security guards are supposed to pull over every twentieth person and/or family. Let's also assume this is TSA standard, so we don't have to muck around with that variable. We as passengers have a one in twenty chance of being pulled aside and having our stuff searched.

Using the formula it basically amounts to one over twenty to the sixth. Which equates to a p-value of 0.000000015625, or 0.0000015625% chance of this happening at random. Not even at a significance level of 0.001 is this remotely likely to occur by chance.

In stats, we call this a significant outcome.

In layman's terms, we say the game is rigged.

I completely lost my shit at the end. I tore into the damn security guard. Ended up making a complete fool of myself too, especially as one typically isn't able to articulate their argument nearly as well when one is raging so hard.

Now, I am more clear headed. Let's play devil's advocate.

The significance level is still 0.001. Let's see what it takes to make our experience not significant.

0.001 = x^6
10^-3 = x^6
Log10(0.001) = log10(x^6)
Log10(0.001) = 6 * log10(x)
-0.5 = log10(x)
10^-0.5=x
Therefore x = 0.316227766016838

(If anyone wants to check my work, feel free. Haven't touched logarithms with any seriousness for two full years.)

Now that doesn't seem too bad. Maybe I was in the wrong. I hope not, because then I'd be a right dick, now wouldn't I?

But wait, does the airport have the time and resources to pull aside (approximately) every third passenger? That seems unlikely to me, especially considering the sheer volume that floods the queue just at the restrooms; surely checking every third passenger would be a gross mismanagement of manpower?

Again, that's also working at the 0.001 significance level. More common significance levels include 0.05 and 0.01.

Perhaps I honestly don't need to beat this dead horse with a statistics textbook any longer, but damn me if I don't feel outright enraged and justified in my rage!

This system is flawed, skewed one way by internalized xenophobia arguably stemming from previous experience with Muslim extremists.

Here's a news flash, America! You can be white AND a Muslim! Egad! You can be a Muslim and NOT WANT TO DROWN BABIES! Holy shit, what a revelation. Can your narrow, prejudiced mind comprehend this world-view shattering notion? Shall I bring you a few stone tablets to write upon your epiphany?

(Obviously I'm speaking to the ignorant in general; the fact I've directly addressed Americans is because I am one and, well, we admittedly have a poor track record when it comes to being super-accepting of other cultures.)

I apologize to anyone I've offended in my rant, especially concerning my inflammatory comments on religion, but I will not apologize for what I've said as I firmly believe there is an error in how humanity views one another.

Now that I've finished whining about the injustices of the cruel cruel world, what do you think, Mibba?